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Posted by / 07-Aug-2017 08:13

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This means that we would need to know the natural upward and downward fluxes to much better than 3% to say that humans are responsible for the current upward trend in atmospheric CO2.Are measurements of the global carbon fluxes much better than 3% in accuracy??It’s not just that man-made emissions don’t control the climate, they don’t even control global CO2 levels. No graphs are available from Salby's speech or paper yet.CO2 variations do not correlate with man-made emissions. This graph comes from Tom Quirk's related work (see below).In other words, temperature controls CO2 levels on a yearly time-scale, and according to Salby, man-made emissions have little effect.

But CO2 is a well mixed gas so it’s not possible to definitively sort out the sources or sinks with CO2 measurements around the globe. Instead the way to unravel the puzzle is to look at the one long recording we have (at Mauna Loa, in Hawaii, going back to 1959) and graph the changes in CO2 and in C13 from year to year.Salby says he sat on the results for six months wondering if there was any other interpretation he could arrive at, and then, when he invited scientists he trusted and admired to comment on the paper, they also sat on it for half a year.His speech created waves at the IUGG conference, and word is spreading.But the globe has been warming during that period (in fact since the depths of the Little Ice Age around 1680), so warmer conditions could be the reason that CO2 has been rising.Salby does not dispute that some of the rise in CO2 levels is due to man-made emissions, but found that temperature alone explains about 80% of the variation in CO2 levels.

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Exactly how closely do we know the rate of soil evolution of CO2, for example?